The war's effects, including the collapse of shipping insurance in the Strait of Hormuz, attacks on data centers, and a spike in oil prices, are structural problems that will increase component costs and slow the AI buildout. The market has priced in the spending, the compounding returns that spending is supposed to generate, the AI productivity boom, the new revenue streams, the structural advantage that justifies Nvidia trading at the multiples it does. The question is whether the market has actually updated its model, or whether it is still running on the assumption that this resolves in a few weeks and everything returns to February 27th.
Author: Michael Kern
Published at: 2026-03-20 23:00:00
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