Some common forecasting questions take the form of “will X event happen by Y date”: “Will China invade Taiwan by 2030,” or “Will China invade Taiwan by 2040.” One logical implication is that, for a given question, the odds should stay the same or increase as the date gets later into the future: since “China invading before 2040” includes all future where “China invades before 2030,” the odds of it happening by 2040 should, at the very least, not be lower than the odds of it happening by 2030. Good forecasting requires you to be honest about your mistakes and to learn from them; to change your views all the time, by little increments, rather than suddenly and all at once; and to not be distracted by what’s prominently in the news and being discussed around you, but give proper weight to all the information you’re receiving. Similarly, companies that operate abroad often pay for political risk consultants that purport to tell them, say, “how dangerous is it to be working in Jordan right now,” or “what are the odds that a coup happens in Myanmar while we’re working there.” Demonstrably superhuman AI forecasting might change that work considerably, and could threaten a lot of those consultancies — if those AI forecasts were trusted.
Author: Dylan Matthews
Published at: 2025-05-06 21:35:32
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