What makes the coming transformation so significant is the fact that a confluence of major shaping factors—including the decline of a raft of supranational institutions from the EU to NATO, mass migration, the looming fiscal crisis and the energy crisis—have struck just as internal political instability appears to be reaching record high levels. As one major example, the accession of Sanae Takaichi to the premiership of Japan in October 2025 appeared to indicate a definitive return to national-conservatism in Japan after a period of uncertain strategic direction, as well as revisitation of many of the core assumptions of the post-war period. The apparent trajectory of the Russia-Ukraine war, which will likely come to a conclusion in 2026, and the apparent re-direction of American strategic interest to other domains, such as the return to the two centuries-old Monroe Doctrine, make it clear that the status quo is no longer viable.
Author: Alastair Paynter
Published at: 2025-12-11 22:00:00
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