But nearly a year into Trump’s return to the White House, “inflation is as high today as it was the day he took office,” he says, and voters now judge Trump just as harshly as Biden on economic management. However, Cavallo added, the retail price impacts remained modest when compared with the actual size of the tariffs announced, saying this is in line with trends observed during the U.S.-China trade war in 2018-2019, when "prices at the border rose quickly, but pass-through to retail prices was slow and uneven." If Trump continues downplaying economic pain, Axelrod argues, Democrats could be positioned to retake one or both chambers of Congress in the 2026 midterms—an outcome driven, he writes, by the president’s own refusal to confront the crisis he promised to fix.
Author: Alberto Cavallo
Published at: 2025-12-09 00:00:00
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