One common thread is that he expects the parties directly involved to work out a solution that doesn't impose a lot of costs on the US or formally increase US security commitments, although the latest reports on the Ukraine deal suggest that it will bind the US to some kind of Article 5-like guarantee. Ukraine seems to be the opposite: there doesn't seem to be any resolve to pressure Russia sufficiently to get Putin to modify his actions and the constant discussions of economic "deals" makes it look like Trump is being bribed to abandon Ukraine and, more importantly, is a category mistake when dealing with Russia. This is not addressed by the NSS, so in all likelihood the result will be the further isolation of the US, an armed forces falling to or below their capacities of 1940, to be followed at some point in the medium term by a sucker punch like 1941.
Author: The American Conservative
Published at: 2025-12-13 19:48:01
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