Despite not having a navy, Ukraine has arguably won the naval war in the Black Sea, forcing the Russian Black Sea fleet into port and sinking the pride of the Russian navy, the Moskova. If these trends continue, a debt crisis in the Russian banking sector will be in the offing, and if a credit crunch occurs in the next 12 months, it will exacerbate the negative outlook. Though Russia may not face imminent military or economic collapse, the best case scenario are mounting costs to service the war and a hit to Russian livelihoods across the board, with no sure sign of victory on the Ukrainian battlefield; the worst case scenario is a banking crisis that quickly spills over into the rest of the economy, potentially causing a broader economic and political crisis.
Author: RealClearWire
Published at: 2025-08-03 20:34:28
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