The fall of Iran’s Shia Empire and the battle for a New Middle East

In what was perceived as an attempt to halt escalation rather than prolong war, U.S. Air Force targeted Iran’s most critical nuclear sites—long the primary source of Israeli grievance and the central flashpoint in its confrontation with the Iranian regime. The prospect of a prolonged, attritional war; the absence of a unified, democratic alternative; the threat of civil war, state disintegration, and even civilizational collapse; and the hesitation of neighboring countries to become entangled in a potentially destabilizing transition—all contribute to a cautious and calculated posture at the domestic, regional, and international levels. Continued Israeli strikes may fall short of toppling the Iranian regime, yet they could push Tehran toward a fateful decision: to accelerate its development of nuclear weapons and unleash a broader war—not only against Israel but also the Gulf states and Western interests.

Author: Dr. Reza Parchizadeh

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