Russia is ‘teetering on the brink of a recession’ and headed for a disastrous harvest, while Putin’s other top source of cash plunges

“So it’s too early to adopt a more optimistic view on the Russian economy, which we think is teetering on the brink of a recession,” Tatiana Orlova, lead economist for emerging markets at Oxford Economics, said in a note on Monday. Last month, the central bank slashed interest rates by 200 basis points to revive stalling growth, after hiking them to sky-high levels to fight inflation that’s been stoked by Russia’s war on Ukraine. “Russia’s bad 2025 harvest is more than a weather event: it reveals the structural fragility of Russia’s war economy and the growing risks to a system built on fiscal buffers and fossil fuels,” Frankopan wrote.

Автор/ка: Jason Ma

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