“Many people are waiting to see whether President Trump will continue to fight, which I believe would risk pushing us over the brink into a more clear civil war, or if he will make an attempt to pull us back from the brink by appealing for peace, promising and showing that the justice system will handle the shootings appropriately, and curtail ICE activities,” he wrote. Dalio has for years used his Big Cycle framework to caution that the U.S. is deep into what he calls Stage 5—the “pre-breakdown phase” characterized by bad financial conditions and internal conflict—and risks teetering into Stage 6, what he calls the “final and most painful stage,” marked by the breakdown of the existing order via civil war or revolution. He cited excerpts from his 2021 book, in which he stated that “people dying in the fighting” is a sign that “almost certainly signifies the progression to the next and more violent civil war stage,” and that intensifying disputes between the federal government and the states is a classic historical marker for civil conflict.
Author: Jake Angelo
Published at: 2026-01-26 22:28:41
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