Prediction markets reveal odds on Iran’s nuclear future, regime change - Eric Crampton

All up, Iran’s odds of getting a nuclear weapon seem to have increased slightly, and the likelihood of a nuclear deal is lower than they were in late May. After America’s B2 bombers hit the Fordo site, the odds on Iran closing the Strait of Hormuz sometime this year more than doubled; before mid-June, the odds generally hovered below 20%. On the plus side, while the odds of a nuclear weapon detonation in 2025 – including tests – spiked past 20% on June 19, they have since dropped back to the low teens.

Author: Eric Crampton

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