The April 30 market surged 24 points in a day, indicating traders see a higher chance of escalation. The December 31 market is at 90.5% YES, up from 72% yesterday, suggesting confidence that ground intervention is likely by year-end. With US and Israeli strikes continuing, traders interpret the developments as a substantial increase in the probability of US boots on the ground.
Author: Estefano Gomez
Published at: 2026-04-03 21:03:12
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