Whether driven by the momentum of broad sanctions or a lack of viable alternatives, the current trajectory suggests that Western powers are risking a repetition of the “Libya Model” in Iran. From a purely Realist perspective, the cost of coexisting with a difficult Iranian state is significantly lower than the cost of managing a major zone of ungoverned instability in the heart of Eurasia. Thus, the current policy does not weaken the grip of the state; it weakens the resilience of the society.
Author: Mahdi Motlagh
Published at: 2026-01-27 23:00:10
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