How successful has OPEC+'s oil output policy been in 2025?

Faced with growing competition, particularly from producers in the United States, but also Canada, Brazil and Guyana, the group has focused on hiking production in a bid to regain a larger share of the oil market. Saudi Arabia, the world's leading oil exporter and the most influential member of OPEC+, has made the accommodation of U.S. interests "an important asset" in its diplomacy with Washington, said Perrin. An easing of tensions in the war between Russia and Ukraine would reduce the geopolitical risk premium that is driving up crude prices, while a deadlock in the negotiations would shift the focus of producers back to U.S. sanctions against Russian oil giants Lukoil and Rosneft.