And in September, the flip was complete: only 12 percent still cited trade war as the biggest tail risk, while 26 percent named a “second wave of inflation.” In a speech Monday to the Economic Club of New York, he said tariffs and border policy are putting downward pressure on the neutral interest rate—the rate that neither pushes the economy to grow faster nor restrains it—by boosting national saving, reducing rent inflation, and slowing population growth. In Miran’s view, markets are once again chasing the wrong ghost—first recession, now inflation—when the real story is that tariffs and immigration policy are easing price pressures and making the Fed’s job easier, not harder.
Author: John Carney, John Carney
Published at: 2025-09-22 22:30:59
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