A $400,000 payout after Maduro's capture put prediction markets in the spotlight. Here's how they work

A $400,000 payout after Maduro's capture put prediction markets in the spotlight. Here's how they work


The bulk of the trader's bids on the platform Polymarket were made mere hours before President Donald Trump announced the surprise nighttime raid that led to Maduro's capture, fueling online suspicions of potential insider trading because of the timing of the wagers and the trader's narrow activity on the platform. The commercial use of prediction markets has skyrocketed in recent years, opening the door for people to wage their money on the likelihood of a growing list of future events. While the companies running the platforms collect personal information of their users in order to verify identities and payments, most people can trade under anonymous pseudonyms online — making it difficult for the public to know who is profiting off many event contracts.

Author: Wyatte Grantham-Philips, Associated Press


Published at: 2026-01-12 22:51:24

Still want to read the full version? Full article